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Despite influx of state revenue, California braces for post-election budget uncertainty

Despite influx of state revenue, California braces for post-election budget uncertainty
SOME 174,000 MORE VOTES TO PROCESS. THIS ELECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON CALIFORNIA’S STATE BUDGET SITUATION. LAWMAKERS AND THE GOVERNOR SPENT THE LAST TWO YEARS TRYING TO MANAGE BUDGET SHORTFALLS AND EXPERTS SAY THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AHEAD. LET’S GO TO OUR CAPITOL CORRESPONDENT, ASHLEY ZAVALA, HERE. NOW WITH WHERE THIS ALL STANDS RIGHT NOW. ASHLEY. GULSTAN AND LISA, THE STOCK MARKET IS DOING WELL. AND STATE REVENUE SO FAR IS COMING BACK BETTER THAN EXPECTED THESE LAST FEW MONTHS. BUT REGARDLESS, BECAUSE OF SOME OF THE BALLOT MEASURES VOTERS APPROVED AND WITH THE INCOMING TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, NEWSOM’S ADMINISTRATION SAYS FINANCIAL HURDLES COULD STILL BE AHEAD. REVENUES ARE UP. IT’S A REFLECTION OF A RESILIENT ECONOMY. THOSE ARE VERY POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE’RE PLEASED WITH THOSE DEVELOPMENTS. WE’VE GOT TO LOOK ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LEDGER SHEET. CALIFORNIA’S DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE IS IN THE PROCESS OF ANALYZING THE STATE’S BUDGET OUTLOOK. SPOKESMAN H.D. PALMER NOTES THE STATE SO FAR RAKING IN $4 BILLION MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THE BUDGET YEAR. THAT’S A SIGN OF A OF A HEALTHY ECONOMY, ONE THAT IS GROWING. IT’S PARTICULARLY SPEAKS TO THE STRENGTH OF OUR TECH INDUSTRIES, SUCH AS I. ALL THAT IS GOOD AND WELCOME. BUT IT’S NOT FREE MONEY. WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THE OBLIGATIONS THOSE OBLIGATIONS BASED ON VOTER DECISIONS, STARTING WITH PRESIDENT ELECT DONALD TRUMP. GOVERNOR NEWSOM IS PUTTING TOGETHER PLANS TO PROVIDE EXTRA MONEY TO THE STATE’S DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE TO LEGALLY FIGHT THE ADMINISTRATION. THE GOVERNOR, ALSO CONSIDERING A NEW DISASTER RELIEF FUND AS THE INCOMING PRESIDENT HAS THREATENED TO PULL THOSE DOLLARS AWAY FROM CALIFORNIA. PALMER NOTES THE FINANCIAL RELATIONSHIP OVERALL BETWEEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND CALIFORNIA COULD CHANGE, AND NEWSOM IS PREPARING. THAT’S ONE OF THE REASONS THAT GOVERNOR NEWSOM IS IN WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS WEEK, MEETING WITH OFFICIALS FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, MEETING WITH MEMBERS OF CALIFORNIA’S CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION TO TALK THROUGH THESE ISSUES, KNOWING THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE SOME CHANGES IN TRYING TO PREPARE AS BEST WE CAN, JUST LIKE ALWAYS AT THIS POINT, YOU REALLY CAN’T TELL. STATE SENATE BUDGET CHAIRMAN ROGER NIELLO SAYS, RIGHT NOW IT’S HARD TO PINPOINT THE UNCERTAINTY AND DOES NOT THINK THE PRESIDENT HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT. IT’S INTERESTING THAT THE EXISTING ADMINISTRATION IN WASHINGTON, D.C., AS WELL AS NEWSOM HERE IN CALIFORNIA, THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THINGS TO DO FIRST AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL, TO TRY TO THWART WHAT IT IS THAT A PRESIDENT TRUMP WANTS TO DO WHEN HE HAS BEEN ELECTED BY A MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE. BUT ASIDE FROM TRUMP, BOTH YOLO AND PALMER AGREE. OTHER VOTER DECISIONS ON STATE PROPOSITIONS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE BUDGET. THAT INCLUDES THE TWO REQUESTS TO BORROW BILLIONS FOR SCHOOL UPGRADES AND CLIMATE. PLUS, PROPOSITION 35, WHICH RESTRICTS HOW THE STATE GOVERNMENT CAN SPEND SOME HEALTH CARE DOLLARS. BOTH WE AND THE LEGISLATIVE ANALYSTS PROJECTED THAT IF PROP 35 WERE TO BE APPROVED BY THE VOTERS, THERE WOULD BE ADDITIONAL COST TO THE STATE BUDGET IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS. SO A COUPLE OF INCOMING UPDATES THAT WE’RE WATCHING HERE LATER THIS MONTH. THE STATE’S LEGISLATIVE ANALYST WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST BUDGET OUTLOOK AND ITS PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR BASED ON THIS ELECTION. THE ECONOMY AND SPENDING OVERALL. THEN GOVERNOR NEWSOM WILL PROVIDE HIS FIRST STATE SPENDING PLAN IN THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY. SO, ASHLEY, DO WE KNOW YET HOW MUCH THE GOVERNOR WANTS TO SPEND ON THESE EFFORTS TO FIGHT POLICIES FROM THE INCOMING TRUMP ADMINISTRATION? NOT YET. STATE SENATOR ROGER NIELLO, WHO IS THE BUDGET CHAIR OR THE VICE BUDGET CHAIRMAN, I SHOULD SAY, IN THE STATE SENATE, HE TOLD US THAT HE’S HEARING AT LEAST $150 MILLION FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE TO AGAIN FIGHT THE ADMINISTRATION IN THOSE LEGAL BATTLES. BUT AS WE REPORTED LAST WEEK, WE TRIED TO ASK THE ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR A NUMBER HE WOULD NOT GIVE ONE AS FAR AS THAT POSSIBLE DISASTER RELIEF FUND. WE HAVE YET TO SEE A DOLLAR AMOUNT ON THAT, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY EXPENSIVE I
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Despite influx of state revenue, California braces for post-election budget uncertainty
State officials confirmed on Tuesday the election is expected to have an impact on California's state budget situation, with voter-approved propositions likely taking a sizable chunk out of state spending coupled with challenges that may arise between California and the incoming Trump administration. After grappling with back-to-back years of budget shortfalls, California has been seeing a surge of state revenue with about $4 billion more than what officials had been expecting in the first few months of the budget year. Newsom's Department of Finance spokesman credited the strength of the state's tech and artificial intelligence companies for the influx. "It's a reflection of a resilient economy," Newsom's Department of Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer told KCRA 3 in an interview. "All that is good and welcome, but it's not free money, we have to recognize the obligations." Those obligations range from ballot measures that voters approved in last week's election, coupled with the likely changing financial relationship between California and the federal government. The state's Legislative Analyst at the end of this month is expected to release its first budget outlook for the upcoming year, and the governor will present the first version of his state spending plan in early January. Ahead of those presentations, here is a look at what state experts say is driving the uncertainty. President-elect TrumpAfter closing budget gaps for the last two years, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the legislature are eyeing new spending dedicated to protecting California from threats the incoming President has made or policy changes he may push for that run counter to the state's Democratic agenda. The governor called a special legislative session to prepare, and one of the first moves he and lawmakers will make involves providing extra funds to the California Department of Justice. The money is meant to help state Attorney General Rob Bonta with legally fighting the administration on a range of issues that could include the environment, immigration, abortion and LGBTQ protections. Bonta could not say last week how much money his agency needs, but that discussions were ongoing. That figure is expected to be in the tens of millions, with some in the legislature expecting the governor to request up to $150 million. Newsom is also considering putting together a disaster relief fund after Trump threatened to withhold those dollars over the state's water policies. It's not clear how much money the governor is aiming to earmark for this, but it could be expensive. "The governor is putting a lot of these decisions in motion," Palmer said. "The good news is that we do have reserves that are built up." Republican State Sen. Roger Niello, who is the vice chairman of the Senate's Budget Committee, said the uncertainty would exist regardless of who is president. Niello noted a larger share of Californians voted for Trump in this election than they did in 2020, flipping a handful of counties from blue to red. "The governor needs to be mindful of that as he tries to thwart things the Trump administration might want to do," Niello said. Proposition 35 - Healthcare spending California voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 35 this year, which among many things, restricts the way the legislature and governor can use funds provided through a tax on health insurance plans moving forward. Instead of allowing the state to use it to generally cover healthcare spending needs, the funds will need to be used to increase reimbursement rates for healthcare providers who provide treatment to lower-income Californians. The governor warned ahead of the election that if voters approved this, it could mean an immediate reduction of several billion dollars from the state's budget. Palmer said the Department of Finance and Legislative Analyst are now analyzing the budget impact that the decision could have immediately and in future budget years. "On Prop 35, there is a real draw on the general fund," Niello said. The ballot initiative also requires federal approval, and Palmer noted the incoming Trump administration could potentially try to change the policy. California has expanded access to the state's Medicaid program to include lower-income residents, regardless of immigration status. Trump has threatened to repeal benefits provided to undocumented people. "That's one of the reasons Gov. Newsom is in Washington D.C. this week," noted Palmer. "He's meeting with members of California's congressional delegation to talk through these issues and trying to prepare as best we can." Propositions 2 and 4 - Borrowing money for schools and climateCalifornia voters approved two propositions that will allow the state to borrow a total of $20 billion for school upgrades and climate projects. Their impact isn't expected to be as significant but will mean additional spending to pay down the debt with interest. "The rough rule of thumb is for every additional $1 billion in bonds that are authorized, that will cost the state about $60 million per year in interest costs over the life of the 30-year bond," Palmer said. "Those are additional costs that we're going to have to look at as well." "It needs to be moderated based upon the availability of funds, meaning the budget itself," said Niello. "We really don't know what impact that is. It could be a couple hundred million dollars a year, depending on the timing of the issuance of the bonds." Proposition 36 - Retail theft and fentanyl crimes "There is an elephant in the room here, and that is Proposition 36," said Niello. California voters overwhelmingly passed Proposition 36, which ramps up the consequences for some drug and theft crimes, but it did not have any new funding included in the proposal. It includes a "treatment-mandated felony," which will require new spending. Niello said it will be up to the governor and legislature to ultimately figure out how to pay for it. The governor has promised to implement the will of the voters, despite being one of the measure's biggest opponents. "It's going to be very difficult for them to completely ignore the will of 70% of the voters in the state," he said. "If we need more funding for something voters overwhelmingly demanded, and there's not enough money with existing commitments, then we're going to have to cut back on existing commitments." The governor and state lawmakers begin negotiating the state budget in January, and usually finalize that plan at the end of June. To find the latest election results in California, click here. Find more political news from our national team here.

State officials confirmed on Tuesday the election is expected to have an impact on California's state budget situation, with voter-approved propositions likely taking a sizable chunk out of state spending coupled with challenges that may arise between California and the incoming Trump administration.

After grappling with back-to-back years of budget shortfalls, California has been seeing a surge of state revenue with about $4 billion more than what officials had been expecting in the first few months of the budget year. Newsom's Department of Finance spokesman credited the strength of the state's tech and artificial intelligence companies for the influx.

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"It's a reflection of a resilient economy," Newsom's Department of Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer told KCRA 3 in an interview. "All that is good and welcome, but it's not free money, we have to recognize the obligations."

Those obligations range from ballot measures that voters approved in last week's election, coupled with the likely changing financial relationship between California and the federal government. The state's Legislative Analyst at the end of this month is expected to release its first budget outlook for the upcoming year, and the governor will present the first version of his state spending plan in early January.

Ahead of those presentations, here is a look at what state experts say is driving the uncertainty.


President-elect Trump

After closing budget gaps for the last two years, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the legislature are eyeing new spending dedicated to protecting California from threats the incoming President has made or policy changes he may push for that run counter to the state's Democratic agenda.

The governor called a special legislative session to prepare, and one of the first moves he and lawmakers will make involves providing extra funds to the California Department of Justice. The money is meant to help state Attorney General Rob Bonta with legally fighting the administration on a range of issues that could include the environment, immigration, abortion and LGBTQ protections.

Bonta could not say last week how much money his agency needs, but that discussions were ongoing. That figure is expected to be in the tens of millions, with some in the legislature expecting the governor to request up to $150 million.

Newsom is also considering putting together a disaster relief fund after Trump threatened to withhold those dollars over the state's water policies. It's not clear how much money the governor is aiming to earmark for this, but it could be expensive.

"The governor is putting a lot of these decisions in motion," Palmer said. "The good news is that we do have reserves that are built up."

Republican State Sen. Roger Niello, who is the vice chairman of the Senate's Budget Committee, said the uncertainty would exist regardless of who is president. Niello noted a larger share of Californians voted for Trump in this election than they did in 2020, flipping a handful of counties from blue to red.

"The governor needs to be mindful of that as he tries to thwart things the Trump administration might want to do," Niello said.

Proposition 35 - Healthcare spending

California voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 35 this year, which among many things, restricts the way the legislature and governor can use funds provided through a tax on health insurance plans moving forward.

Instead of allowing the state to use it to generally cover healthcare spending needs, the funds will need to be used to increase reimbursement rates for healthcare providers who provide treatment to lower-income Californians. The governor warned ahead of the election that if voters approved this, it could mean an immediate reduction of several billion dollars from the state's budget.

Palmer said the Department of Finance and Legislative Analyst are now analyzing the budget impact that the decision could have immediately and in future budget years.

"On Prop 35, there is a real draw on the general fund," Niello said.

The ballot initiative also requires federal approval, and Palmer noted the incoming Trump administration could potentially try to change the policy. California has expanded access to the state's Medicaid program to include lower-income residents, regardless of immigration status. Trump has threatened to repeal benefits provided to undocumented people.

"That's one of the reasons Gov. Newsom is in Washington D.C. this week," noted Palmer. "He's meeting with members of California's congressional delegation to talk through these issues and trying to prepare as best we can."

Propositions 2 and 4 - Borrowing money for schools and climate

California voters approved two propositions that will allow the state to borrow a total of $20 billion for school upgrades and climate projects. Their impact isn't expected to be as significant but will mean additional spending to pay down the debt with interest.

"The rough rule of thumb is for every additional $1 billion in bonds that are authorized, that will cost the state about $60 million per year in interest costs over the life of the 30-year bond," Palmer said. "Those are additional costs that we're going to have to look at as well."

"It needs to be moderated based upon the availability of funds, meaning the budget itself," said Niello. "We really don't know what impact that is. It could be a couple hundred million dollars a year, depending on the timing of the issuance of the bonds."

Proposition 36 - Retail theft and fentanyl crimes

"There is an elephant in the room here, and that is Proposition 36," said Niello.

California voters overwhelmingly passed Proposition 36, which ramps up the consequences for some drug and theft crimes, but it did not have any new funding included in the proposal. It includes a "treatment-mandated felony," which will require new spending.

Niello said it will be up to the governor and legislature to ultimately figure out how to pay for it. The governor has promised to implement the will of the voters, despite being one of the measure's biggest opponents.

"It's going to be very difficult for them to completely ignore the will of 70% of the voters in the state," he said. "If we need more funding for something voters overwhelmingly demanded, and there's not enough money with existing commitments, then we're going to have to cut back on existing commitments."

The governor and state lawmakers begin negotiating the state budget in January, and usually finalize that plan at the end of June.


To find the latest election results in California, click here. Find more political news from our national team here.