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Will Tahoe have a White Christmas this year? A first look at the forecast

Tahoe's elevation gives the region a good chance to see fresh snow on Christmas Day in any given year.

Will Tahoe have a White Christmas this year? A first look at the forecast

Tahoe's elevation gives the region a good chance to see fresh snow on Christmas Day in any given year.

IN THE AREA. NOW TO OUR WEATHER COVERAGE, STARTING WITH A LIVE LOOK OVER LAKE TAHOE TONIGHT. ALWAYS BEAUTIFUL THERE. QUIET NOW, BUT OUR METEOROLOGIST HEATHER WALDMAN IS TRACKING MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST. HEATHER, I KNOW IT’S A WEEK OUT, BUT COULD TAHOE MAYBE SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR? RIGHT. WELL, THE EXCITING PART IS IT IS A WEEK OUT, WHICH MEANS CHRISTMAS DAY IS NOW IN OUR SEVEN DAY FORECAST FOR TAHOE. IN ANY GIVEN YEAR, THE ODDS OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ARE PRETTY HIGH. SO THESE ARE THE NUMBERS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. THEY ANALYZED DATA FROM 1991 ALL THE WAY TO 2020. SO 30 YEARS WORTH OF DATA TO FIND THE PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WHITE CHRISTMAS. THAT’S AT LEAST A NEW INCH OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO NOT JUST SNOW ON THE GROUND. ANYTHING YOU SEE HERE IN WHITE, THAT’S OVER A 90% CHANCE. AND OF COURSE, WHERE DO YOU SEE THAT? UP IN THE HIGH SIERRA? NOW THE NUMBERS GET A LITTLE FINICKY AS YOU GO DOWN INTO THE BOWL AROUND LAKE TAHOE, BUT THINK OF IT AS ANYWHERE FROM A 60 TO A 90% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST A NEW INCH OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN TAHOE. SO THOSE ARE THE ODDS. WHAT IS THE ACTUAL FORECAST SAY? WELL, I WANT TO SHOW YOU WHAT OUR MODELS ARE TELLING US HERE. WE’LL START WITH MONDAY. CHRISTMAS EVE IS ON TUESDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY IS ON WEDNESDAY. MONDAY IS A DRY DAY, BUT A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS WAY IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO THIS IS 9 A.M. WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE VALLEY AND SNOW FALLING IN THE SIERRA. AT THIS POINT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT SNOW LEVEL WILL BE RIGHT AROUND LAKE LEVEL. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY. ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW FOR CHAIN CONTROLS OVER 80, 50 AND 88. SO IF YOU’RE TRYING TO GET TO TAHOE FOR CHRISTMAS, CHRISTMAS EVE IS NOT GOING TO BE A GREAT TRAVEL DAY. MONDAY AND ACTUALLY CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE, BECAUSE LOOK AT THIS 8 A.M. CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE SNOW IS DONE FALLING. THERE WILL BE FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM THE DAY BEFORE. BUT BY WHAT THIS IS SHOWING, TECHNICALLY THAT’S NOT A WHITE CHRISTMAS. I KNOW TECHNICALITIES. METEOROLOGY IS FULL OF THEM. EITHER WAY, IT’S GOING TO BE A BEAUTIFUL VIEW UP THERE IN TAHOE ON CHRISTMAS MORNING. WE’LL SEE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE FOOTHILLS DRY ON CHRISTMAS AFTER RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND FOR THE VALLEY, A CHANCE AT SOME OF THAT FOG COMES BACK JUST BECAUSE WE’LL HAVE HAD SOME RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE NIGHT BEFORE, AND WE’LL BE CALLING IN RUDOLPH THERE FOR SANTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVEN DAY FORECAST IN THE SIERRA A RAIN SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY, BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF JUST PLAIN OLD SNOW AROUND TAHOE ON TUESDAY FOR THE VALLEY, A WET D
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Will Tahoe have a White Christmas this year? A first look at the forecast

Tahoe's elevation gives the region a good chance to see fresh snow on Christmas Day in any given year.

Christmas Day is just one week away. That may have you wondering: will Lake Tahoe see a White Christmas this year?Here's a preview from the KCRA 3 weather team.What is a White Christmas?Like everything in the world of meteorology, there is specific criteria for defining a White Christmas. It's not about having snow on the ground. A true White Christmas is when an inch or more of fresh snow falls on Christmas Day. According to data analyzed by the National Weather Service, locations in the High Sierra have between a 60% and 90% chance of experiencing a White Christmas in any given year. Those numbers are based on Christmas Day conditions from 1991 to 2020.Will Lake Tahoe have a White Christmas this year?Christmas Day is now on the KCRA 3 weather team's 7-day forecast. As of Wednesday, conditions look dry for the Sierra on Dec. 25, but snow is expected on Christmas Eve day.Forecast models have been consistently showing a storm moving into Northern California late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will start with a rain and snow mix around Lake Tahoe. The snow level will drop throughout the day allowing accumulations in Truckee, South Lake Tahoe and the Donner Lake area. Kirkwood, Meyers and other places above 6,000 feet will also see accumulating snow on Christmas Eve. The KCRA 3 weather team will make a more detailed snow forecast starting this weekend. There will likely be enough snow for chain controls on Interstate 80 as well as Highway 50, 89 and 88. Tuesday is a KCRA 3 weather Impact Day because of expected travel disruptions caused by Sierra snow and Valley rain. REAL-TIME TRAFFIC MAPClick here to see our interactive traffic map.TRACK INTERACTIVE, DOPPLER RADARClick here to see our interactive radar.DOWNLOAD OUR APP FOR THE LATESTHere is where you can download our app.Follow our KCRA weather team on social mediaMeteorologist Tamara Berg on Facebook and X.Meteorologist Dirk Verdoorn on FacebookMeteorologist/Climate Reporter Heather Waldman on Facebook and X.Meteorologist Kelly Curran on X.Watch our forecasts on TV or onlineHere's where to find our latest video forecast. You can also watch a livestream of our latest newscast here. The banner on our website turns red when we're live.We're also streaming on the Very Local app for Roku, Apple TV or Amazon Fire TV.

Christmas Day is just one week away. That may have you wondering: will Lake Tahoe see a White Christmas this year?

Here's a preview from the KCRA 3 weather team.

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What is a White Christmas?

Like everything in the world of meteorology, there is specific criteria for defining a White Christmas.

It's not about having snow on the ground. A true White Christmas is when an inch or more of fresh snow falls on Christmas Day.

white christmas
Hearst Owned

According to data analyzed by the National Weather Service, locations in the High Sierra have between a 60% and 90% chance of experiencing a White Christmas in any given year. Those numbers are based on Christmas Day conditions from 1991 to 2020.

Will Lake Tahoe have a White Christmas this year?

Christmas Day is now on the KCRA 3 weather team's 7-day forecast. As of Wednesday, conditions look dry for the Sierra on Dec. 25, but snow is expected on Christmas Eve day.

Forecast models have been consistently showing a storm moving into Northern California late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

white christmas
Hearst Owned
Forecast models are consistently showing show for the Sierra on Christmas Eve day.

Tuesday will start with a rain and snow mix around Lake Tahoe. The snow level will drop throughout the day allowing accumulations in Truckee, South Lake Tahoe and the Donner Lake area. Kirkwood, Meyers and other places above 6,000 feet will also see accumulating snow on Christmas Eve.

The KCRA 3 weather team will make a more detailed snow forecast starting this weekend. There will likely be enough snow for chain controls on Interstate 80 as well as Highway 50, 89 and 88.

Tuesday is a KCRA 3 weather Impact Day because of expected travel disruptions caused by Sierra snow and Valley rain.

REAL-TIME TRAFFIC MAP
Click here to see our interactive traffic map.
TRACK INTERACTIVE, DOPPLER RADAR
Click here to see our interactive radar.
DOWNLOAD OUR APP FOR THE LATEST
Here is where you can download our app.
Follow our KCRA weather team on social media

  • Meteorologist Tamara Berg on Facebook and X.
  • Meteorologist Dirk Verdoorn on Facebook
  • Meteorologist/Climate Reporter Heather Waldman on Facebook and X.
  • Meteorologist Kelly Curran on X.

Watch our forecasts on TV or online
Here's where to find our latest video forecast. You can also watch a livestream of our latest newscast here. The banner on our website turns red when we're live.
We're also streaming on the Very Local app for Roku, Apple TV or Amazon Fire TV.